Preference Cascade: A Preliminary Defense

By W. F. Twyman, Jr.

[Introduction: For the curious, Yale won the Harvard Yale Game 34 - 29. Happy were the Bulldogs atop the Charles River Bridge. A simple text message said it all We wonnnn! Yale Dominates in the Game]

This evening, I want to talk about an idea that I have. It occurred to me that the concept of Preference Cascade can be applied to the moment we are living through right now. Could it be that the recent election has emboldened those who have gone along to get along to now speak up because others are speaking reality more and more? In recent days, I have sensed a subtle shift in public sentiment. I don’t want to overstate the case, so consider this essay a preliminary defense of the argument.

Before we can develop the argument, we must define our terms. What is a Preference Cascade? As a matter of logic, we should roll back the pages and begin with the idea of Preference Falsification. Against my better judgment, I will quote Wikipedia: Preference falsification is the act of misrepresenting a preference under perceived public pressures. It involves the selection of a publicly expressed preference that differs from the underlying privately held preference (or simply, a public preference at odds with one's private preference) Fancy words for a simple concept. Let’s suppose my wife begs and pleads for me to attend a Kwanzaa celebration sponsored by Jack and Jill. She says she is tired of attending functions alone without her “Jack” (insider label for a husband). I agree to attend for the sake of family harmony. Deep inside, I view Kwanzaa as a faux holiday created by a sketchy dude. I succumb to public pressures of other black families and dare not voice my grave misgivings. My public preference of attendance is at odds with my private take on the event. Thus is an example of preference falsification. (This is a hypothetical, of course.)

Suppose I hold a dim view of the Juneteenth holiday for historical and logical reasons. Ratification of the 13th Amendment ended American slavery, not some announcement of a random Union army man down in Galveston, Texas. In fact, freedom was a rolling process as Union soldiers liberated slaves farm by farm and plantation by plantation in the South. The Manuscript and Freedom A family member invites me to attend a Juneteenth celebration in the park. I attend out of duty and observe the merriment and worn Kente garb of the slave trading Ashanti people. I am repulsed by the hypocrisy of it all but I hold my tongue. I nod my head and smile and do not utter my private thoughts. Another example of preference falsification.

Or, let’s try another example of preference falsification some readers may be able to relate to. One is asked aggressively by family members for whom am I voting. There is intense family pressure because there is one correct answer. One decides not to play the political game and reveal one’s private preference for a candidate. Public pressure has forced a private preference to be concealed. A false public preference of indecision has been created. This is yet another example of preference falsification.

Most normal humans want to live in truth and harmony. Preference falsification does the exact opposite. The person pressured into preference falsification, albeit raising a Black Power Fist when pressured by Black Lives Matter activists or mouthing slogan words at a diversity training, will grow resentful, alienated and bitter. Just because you have pressured someone to place pronouns on their website doesn’t mean they agree with compelled speech. Those who enforce dogma and slogan words on the unwilling have planted the seeds of their own destruction.

Enter Preference Cascade stage right.

Over time, tens and then hundreds and then thousands and then millions of people will be holding back the same private values and beliefs in the face of public pressure to conform. No one wants to be the first to scream The Emperor Has No Clothes! It is the reasonable fear of being whacked as fringe and an outlier that holds the private preferences in check.

Meanwhile, the bullies who are enforcing the false expressions of conformity live in their echo chambers. Everyone voted for x candidate, obviously. Who would question a gay black Santa? Homophobes? And why shouldn’t young girls be affirmed as gay boys? To judge a young girl’s self-identity is to be transphobic. Reasonable people can disagree. That is not the problem. The problem is force and compliance has created a false reality.

And then it happens. No one saw it coming.

Outraged by the prosecution of The Plastic People of the Universe, dissidents take to the streets in Prague and those who have been false in public for years and years discover…they are not alone. A Day in My Life An Arab man sets himself on fire in Tunisia. And hundreds of thousands discover they are not alone in what they feel in private. They release themselves of preference falsification in a wave of humanity. The Arab Spring races across Northern Africa.

“The catalyst for the escalation of protests was the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi. Unable to find work and selling fruit at a roadside stand, Bouazizi had his wares confiscated by a municipal inspector on 17 December 2010. An hour later he doused himself with gasoline and set himself afire. His death on 4 January 2011 brought together various groups dissatisfied with the existing system, including many unemployed persons, political and human rights activists, labor and trade unionists, students, professors, lawyers, and others to begin the Tunisian Revolution.” — Source: The Arab Spring, Wikipedia

Let’s bring it all back to our American shores. Before 1776, most colonists in public believed they could work it out with the British Crown. Private frustration and resentment grew but the public pressures to swear fidelity to the King remained strong. It began at first as a trickle. Some were increasingly annoyed with being taken advantage of by English merchants. George Washington was in this camp. On March 23, 1775, the fire brand Patrick Henry had had enough with the preference falsification. He spoke what was in his heart at St. John’s Church in Richmond, Virginia:

If we were base enough to desire it, it is now too late to retire from the contest. There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! Our chains are forged! Their clanking may be heard on the plains of Boston! The war is inevitable and let it come! I repeat it, sir, let it come. It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!

Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death Speech, Patrick Henry

Henry was one of the first to break with preference falsification. He was prepared to be whacked as one of the first dissenters and non-conformers. He was prepared to die. His courage convinced George Washington and Thomas Jefferson to stop with the preference falsification. In turn, they persuaded the Virginia Convention to send troops to support the American Revolution.

The Preference Cascade was gathering momentum.

Things really took off when Thomas Paine authored Common Sense on January 10, 1776. Paine gave eloquent voice to the pent-up private feelings and emotions of his countrymen. What did Paine say? He said what all freedom loving colonists thought but dared not be alone in saying — It was against common sense for an island to rule a large nation. Monarchies did not respect the rights of people.

That preference cascade freed the timid and fearful. The words of Paine led to a mass freeing of the colonial mind within months and the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776.

Conclusion: In Part 2 tomorrow, I will offer examples of a nascent Preference Cascade in the air. We who value human dignity, creative expression and the individual should all rejoice. To quote a website, [i]n short, average people behave the way they think they ought to, even though that behavior might not reflect their own personal feelings. Given a sufficient "A-HA!" moment when they discover that their personal feelings are shared by a large portion of the population their behavior may change dramatically.

Who will pen the modern Common Sense for the year 2025? Where is our Thomas Paine?